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RESEARCH OF HYDROLOGICAL SERIES LAWS OF THE INFLOW CHARGE OF THE RIVER OB IN THE NOVOSIBIRSK HYDROELECTRIC STATION POWER SITE

V.V. Gubarev, I.K. Alsova, A.I. Belenky, A.V. Gavrilov, A.P. Golovansky, V.A.Jatsko

Novosibirsk State Technical University, Novosibirsk, Russia, e-mail: vt@osilab.cs.nstu.ru,company "Novosibirskenergy", Novosibirsk, Russia, company "Technograd", Novosibirsk, Russia

The Novosibirsk Hydroelectric Station is a very complex hydraulic engineering structure, during its operation inevitably there are numerous difficulties connected to optimum control by work of the reservoir. One of problems, which should constantly be decided - the water inflow forecast, as just this parameter determines tactics of the reservoir functioning. It is necessary to support dynamic balance between volume of inflow and outflow of water, as it is reflected in the optimum water flowing, and, hence, on reception of the maximal benefit at the Hydroelectric Station work.

The task of the forecast can be decided by revealing laws in hydrological supervision of inflow for the certain period of time with the help of various research methods. With the purpose of development of optimum strategy working and filling of the reservoir on the basis of the inflow volumes account the statistical research was carried out, during which the analysis of hydrological series was carried out, the basic statistical laws of distribution of the inflow were revealed, the inflow forecast is carried out. The initial data: as the initial data hydrological time series monthly average, quarter average, annual average of the inflow charge of the river Ob in the Novosibirsk Hydroelectric Station power site for 1894-1997 were used.

Methods of research: the received results of research are based on use of methods and means of mathematical statistics, namely its such sections, as correlation and regression analyses, methods of primary statistical data processing, spectral analysis, methods of identification and time series forecasting. In the report the following basic results are submitted:

  1. Statement of the statistical research task.
  2. Results of preliminary statistical processing of hydrological series.
  3. Results of the correlation analysis (estimation of presence and degree of narrowness of statistical connections between the inflow charges on months, quarters, years with the help of the various characteristics of connection).
  4. Results of the spectral analysis (revealing of periodicity in hydrological series).
  5. Results of the qualitative analysis of hydrological series (definition "backbone" months, quarters).
  6. Results of the inflow charge forecasting (consideration several possible models, their comparison and choice).
  7. General conclusions and remarks on the done work.